Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 434

   Mesoscale Discussion 0434
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1037 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025

   Areas affected...Eastern Florida Panhandle into south central
   Georgia

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 133...

   Valid 071537Z - 071700Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 133 continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for tornadoes and wind damage will persist with
   embedded supercells through early afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A pre-frontal band of convection, with embedded
   supercell structures, has showed signs of slow intensification from
   mid-late morning from the FL Panhandle into south central GA. 
   Surface heating in advance of the convective band, along with
   sufficient deep-layer shear and low-level hodograph curvature per
   regional VWPs, will maintain embedded supercell structures and the
   threat for tornadoes (as confirmed by recent TDSs in Thomas Co. GA
   and Leon Co. FL) and occasional wind damage.  Likewise, modest
   forcing for ascent along the pre-frontal band will also favor line
   breaks and semi-discrete storms within the band through early
   afternoon.

   ..Thompson.. 04/07/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   29978360 29658456 29818501 31088414 31798342 32038287
               31998234 31778215 30938264 29978360 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH