Mesoscale Discussion 0433
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025
Areas affected...parts of swrn through e cntrl GA...wrn and cntrl SC
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 071240Z - 071445Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...At least low probabilities for an additional tornado or
two and/or locally damaging surface gusts continues in scattered
thunderstorm activity overspread the region through 10-11 AM EDT.
It is still not clear that a severe weather watch is needed in the
near term, but trends will continue to be monitored for this
possibility.
DISCUSSION...Stronger boundary-layer instability, characterized by
CAPE near or above 1000 J/kg, still remains confined to a narrow
pre-frontal corridor across the western Florida Panhandle through
southwestern into southern portions of central GA. However, some
cooling loft appears to be contributing to at least weak
destabilization north-northeastward toward the South Carolina
Piedmont.
The front, with a couple of weak waves along it, will continue a
slow eastward progression through mid to late morning, with the
Rapid Refresh indicating that a moderate south-southwesterly
low-level jet (in excess of 40 kt around 850 mb) will maintain
sizable, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs within the
instability axis.
Cloud cover spreading downstream of the stronger ongoing convective
development probably will slow boundary-layer destabilization, and
it is not certain that there will be a substantive further increase
in thunderstorm intensities in the near term. However, the MCV,
which apparently recently contributed to a tornado south-southwest
of the Greater Atlanta area, continues east-northeastward toward the
South Carolina Piedmont, and it not clear that the downstream
environment will not support an additional relatively short-lived
tornado or two. Farther south, in the corridor of better
instability, focused along the low-level jet axis near/north and
east of the Albany into Macon vicinities, there may also be
continuing potential for short-lived intensification of
meso-vortices embedded with the ongoing narrow band of convection.
..Kerr/Mosier.. 04/07/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 32118371 32698381 33708337 34688218 33778104 30448443
30508493 32118371
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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