US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 422

   Mesoscale Discussion 0422
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1254 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

   Areas affected...portions of northeast Tennessee and eastern
   Kentucky into extreme western Virginia and western West Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 111754Z - 112000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe threat should gradually increase into the
   afternoon and with northern extent. The stronger, longer-lasting
   storms will be capable of large hail and damaging gusts, with a
   tornado or two possible farther north into KY/WV where low-level
   shear is stronger.

   DISCUSSION...Pockets of surface heating, amid widespread clouds and
   ongoing showers and thunderstorms, is supporting surface
   temperatures rising into the mid 60s to 70 F amid upper 50s to low
   60s F dewpoints. The surface heating is allowing for the steepening
   of low-level lapse rates, boosting MLCAPE to over 500 J/kg in spots.
   Meanwhile, the approach of a longer-wave mid-level trough is
   promoting continued deep-layer ascent across the region, that in
   tandem with deep-layer shear, should only increase with time. As
   such, the increasing intensity and coverage of storms will be
   gradual this afternoon, and will be dependent on continued
   destabilization over eastern portions of the OH Valley. 

   Initial storms may produce gusty winds and hail across northeast TN
   into eastern KY. However, as storms potentially intensify into the
   afternoon hours, damaging gusts will become a greater concern as
   storms move into northeast KY into WV. Given larger, curved
   low-level hodographs driven by backed flow, the best chance for any
   tornado development will also be in the northeast KY/WV area later
   this afternoon. As such, overall greater WW issuance possibilities
   increase with northward extent this afternoon.

   ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 04/11/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36258528 37468432 38408310 38718199 38558157 38178134
               37688177 36888256 36408301 36128352 35668416 36258528 

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