Mesoscale Discussion 0417 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Areas affected...Far southeast WI across southern Lake Michigan into southern Lower MI Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106...107... Valid 140650Z - 140815Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106, 107 continues. SUMMARY...The damaging-wind threat may spread east-southeastward into southern Lower Michigan through the early morning. DISCUSSION...A fast-moving line segment with occasional embedded circulations is moving across Milwaukee as of 0645 UTC. Area VWPs (KMKX, KMKE, KGRR) all depict strong low-level southwesterly flow, with 60+ kt noted at 1 km AGL. This strong low-level flow and favorable deep-layer shear will continue to support organized storm structures through the overnight hours. While MLCINH will continue to gradually increase with time and eastward extent, a seasonably warm and moist overnight boundary layer (with MLCAPE of greater than 1000 J/kg) may support a continued threat of damaging gusts into at least southwest Lower MI, after the line crosses the lake. A line-embedded tornado also remains possible, given the very strong low-level shear/SRH. Uncertainty remains regarding the longevity of the threat into a larger portion of southern Lower MI, given the presence of a more-stable boundary layer with eastward extent. However, with the potential for strongly sheared convection to persist overnight, local expansion of WW 107 and/or downstream watch issuance may be needed. ..Dean/Smith.. 04/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX... LAT...LON 43668786 43638604 43528460 42868402 42458402 42248422 41918480 41908537 41968633 42148702 42398767 42728843 43668786 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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