Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 41

   Mesoscale Discussion 0041
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0439 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

   Areas affected...portions of far western New York

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 202239Z - 210245Z

   SUMMARY...Instances of heavy lake-effect snow should continue
   through the evening, with 2 inch/hour snowfall rates possible,
   especially over Erie County, New York.

   DISCUSSION...Deep-layer flow (especially closer to the surface) has
   become more aligned with the long axis of Lake Erie over the past
   couple of hours given the passing of a weak surface trough. The long
   fetch of appreciable low-level moisture off of the lake waters will
   support lake effect snow into the evening hours. 6-7 C/km low-level
   lapse rates (evident via 22Z mesoanalysis) will support continued
   heavier snowfall (as was recently observed at the DKK ASOS), with
   snowfall rates potentially approaching 2 inches/hour at times.

   ..Squitieri.. 01/20/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BUF...

   LAT...LON   42667911 42767897 42817890 42907887 42927861 42777847
               42617851 42527878 42517889 42577899 42667911