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Mesoscale Discussion 398 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0398 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Areas affected...Portions of east TX into western/northern LA Concerning...Tornado Watch 94... Valid 091852Z - 092015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 94 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for damaging winds and perhaps a couple tornadoes may continue eastward into east Texas and western/northern Louisiana. A downstream watch is being considered. DISCUSSION...A small bowing cluster/MCV has recently developed across east-central TX along or perhaps just north of the surface boundary. Gradual airmass recovery is occurring downstream across east TX into western/northern LA, where surface temperatures have mostly warmed into the 70s amid persistent easterly near-surface flow. Weak MLCAPE coupled with strong deep-layer shear may be sufficient for continued organization to the small cluster as it moves eastward through the rest of the afternoon. Assuming sufficient destabilization can occur to support truly surface-based convection, then damaging winds may be the primary severe threat. Sufficient low-level shear is also present along the boundary to support an isolated tornado threat, especially if any supercells can develop ahead of the ongoing cluster. Depending on convective trends, a downstream watch may be needed for parts of east TX into western/northern/LA. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 32149585 32399522 32449274 32239212 31499206 31289244 31109442 31269615 31669589 32149585 |
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