Mesoscale Discussion 0365 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Areas affected...parts of srn IL...the MO Bootheel...srn/ern AR...nwrn MS...wrn TN...wrn KY Concerning...Tornado Watch 98... Valid 030033Z - 030230Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 98 continues. SUMMARY...A continued gradual increase in potential for damaging surface gusts, and tornadoes associated with meso-vortices embedded within the evolving mesoscale convective system, are expected through 9-10 PM CDT. Additional supercells posing a risk for strong tornadoes still appear possible across parts of southeastern Arkansas into the Greater Memphis area. DISCUSSION...The narrow surface cold pool appears to have strengthened along a corridor from Texarkana through Little Rock, Batesville, AR and Poplar Bluff MO, where 2 hourly surface pressure rises of 2-4 mb were sampled in the 00Z surface obs. A meso low has developed along the gust front near Cape Girardeau, where a 2 hourly fall in excess of 3 mb was evident. Another may be developing near/west of Memphis, where another notable fall center was evident (in excess of 2 mb in 2 hours). The boundary-layer remains characterized by moderate potential instability in a narrow corridor within the confluent low-level regime across southeastern Arkansas toward the Greater Memphis area, where additional discrete supercell development with potential to produce a strong tornado remains possible. Farther north into the lower Ohio Valley this is becoming more unclear as the gust front begins to overtake initially more discrete storm development. Regardless, potential for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes with evolving meso-vortices within the developing mesoscale convective system are expected to continue a slow eastward progress across southeastern Arkansas, and areas east of the Mississippi River into lower Ohio Valley through 02-03Z. ..Kerr.. 04/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK... LAT...LON 33659273 34439189 35149111 35819050 36668981 37398938 37808913 37818827 36928790 36118840 34399063 33459213 33659273 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...155-190 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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