Mesoscale Discussion 0360 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0535 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Areas affected...parts of sern MO...srn IL...sern IN...swrn KY...wrn TN...nrn through swrn AR and adjacent ne TX Concerning...Tornado Watch 98... Valid 022235Z - 030030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 98 continues. SUMMARY...A couple of long-lived supercells posing the risk of producing strong tornadoes appear possible across northwestern Louisiana and southern/eastern Arkansas through 7-9 PM CDT. Otherwise, potential for damaging wind gusts and brief tornadoes may slowly increase with a slowly east-southeastward advancing squall line. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has become extensive within a pre-frontal confluent zone, from the Ark-La-Tex into southern Illinois. Outflow has generated an elongated surface cold pool, which remains largely parallel to the 50-60 kt southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. It appears that this includes a 60+ kt 850 mb jet core, which is forecast to continue to nose across the Mid South between the Greater Memphis area and southwestern Kentucky through early evening. Gradually, with further strengthening of the surface cold pool, north-northeastward surging segments of the associated cold front may become better defined, with radar reflectivities taking on more organized line echo wave structures. Developing embedded meso vortices may be accompanied by increasing potential for damaging surface gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. Otherwise, isolated, discrete thunderstorm development is ongoing within a corridor of surface pressure falls (near 2 mb 2-hourly) within the pre-frontal surface trough across northern Louisiana through eastern Arkansas. Embedded within a seasonably moist boundary layer, characterized by moderately large CAPE, and an environment with large, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, a couple of long-lived supercells with potential to produce strong tornadoes appears possible into the 00-02Z time frame. ..Kerr.. 04/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 33839343 35599160 36169111 36409073 36879011 37858916 38348886 38428791 37978753 36868873 35328994 33839106 32829201 32289336 32259407 32639419 33339413 33839343 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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