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Mesoscale Discussion 36 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0036 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Areas affected...Portions of western North Florida Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 190708Z - 190915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are possible. Areas near the coast with upper 60s F dewpoints will have the greatest risk. A watch is not currently anticipated. DISCUSSION...Storms continue to develop in a warm advection zone offshore near the Florida Big Bend. This activity is expected to continue slowly eastward during the overnight. Ahead of these storms, moisture continues to move northward. As dewpoints reach the upper 60s F, forecast soundings suggest storms will be at least near surface based. Strong low/mid-level winds will promote some storm organization and potential for low-level rotation. The main limiting factor will be buoyancy, particularly inland from the immediate coast. Based on KTLH radar imagery, the current band of storms has shown modest increase in intensity and some areas of weak low-level rotation. Strong wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado would be possible should an organized storm move ashore coincident with upper 60s F dewpoints. ..Wendt/Hart.. 01/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 29278465 29398459 29828347 29908294 29738249 29478236 29268236 28968328 28888424 28988470 29278465 |
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