Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 328

   Mesoscale Discussion 0328
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0145 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

   Areas affected...Northern North Carolina into Virginia and Maryland

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 311845Z - 312045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms across the western Carolinas are
   expected to increase in coverage through late afternoon and early
   evening. Eventual watch issuance into North Carolina and
   Virginia/Maryland is possible as storms grow upscale and pose a more
   widespread wind threat.

   DISCUSSION...Convection across the western Carolinas has shown
   steady intensification over the past hour as lift associated with an
   approaching mid-level wave/vorticity maximum begins to impinge on
   higher-quality moisture/buoyancy in the lee of the southern
   Appalachians. Downstream of these storms into northern NC and VA,
   partly cloudy skies have allowed temperatures to warm into the mid
   70s to low 80s amid a gradual return of low-level moisture. MLCAPE
   values around 500 J/kg are already in place across north-central
   NC/VA based on an observed 18z GSO sounding adjusted for observed
   temperature/dewpoints further east into the warm sector. This
   sounding and regional VWPs are also sampling 30-40 knot flow within
   the lowest few kilometers and sufficient deep-layer shear to promote
   loosely organized convection. The expectation is that convective
   coverage should slowly increase over the next 1-2 hours across
   western NC/southwest VA with gradual upscale growth. As this occurs,
   a damaging wind threat should eventually materialize as storms move
   into the more deeply mixed environment across north-central
   NC/central VA where dewpoint depressions are approaching 20-25 F.
   Precisely when storm coverage/organization is sufficiently
   widespread to warrant watch issuance remains somewhat uncertain, but
   convective trends will continue to be monitored.

   ..Moore/Smith.. 03/31/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...

   LAT...LON   35357946 35248050 35188116 35218155 35418184 35768195
               36078188 36408167 36788112 37438000 37677943 38477778
               38827668 38877614 38647572 38307556 37847555 37257562
               36967563 36597574 36287620 36067680 35567847 35357946 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN