Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 307

   Mesoscale Discussion 0307
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0520 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

   Areas affected...Mid Mississippi Valley

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 72...

   Valid 302220Z - 310015Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 72 continues.

   SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue across the mid Mississippi
   Valley through early to mid evening. Very large hail, severe wind
   gusts and tornadoes will be possible. Weather watch issuance will
   eventually be needed to the east of the current watches over parts
   of central Kentucky and western Tennessee.

   DISCUSSION...The latest WSR-88D radar imagery from Paducah shows
   several supercells ongoing along a corridor from far northern
   Arkansas northeastward into southern Illinois. These severe storms
   are located to the west of an axis of moderate instability where the
   RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. In addition,
   the Paducah WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear around 55 knots with
   pronounced directional shear in the lowest 2 km AGL. This shear
   profile will be favorable for severe storms, and continued supercell
   development. The steepest mid-level lapse rates are located over far
   southeast Missouri and northeast Arkansas, where supercells could
   produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. Over the next
   couple of hours, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet will increase in
   strength over western Tennessee and western Kentucky. This will make
   low-level shear increasingly favorable for tornadoes, especially as
   the supercells interact with the low-level jet. Eventually, a nearly
   continuous line of storms will become organized into a linear MCS.
   As this line moves eastward into areas near and to the east of the
   Mississippi River, the wind-damage potential is expected to increase
   and wind gusts above 70 mph will become likely along and just ahead
   of the more intense parts of the line.

   ..Broyles.. 03/30/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   34999080 35109139 35439175 35859179 36429157 37199062
               38348831 38568739 38528603 38358532 38098495 37758493
               37418511 36838590 35798807 35248939 35059028 34999080 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN