Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 247

   Mesoscale Discussion 0247
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0456 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

   Areas affected...parts of eastern Illinois and into western Indiana

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 57...

   Valid 192156Z - 192330Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 57 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe/isolated tornado risk continues across Tornado
   Watch 57, with the greatest short-term tornado potential appearing
   most likely over east-central Illinois and western Indiana.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows scattered strong/locally severe
   storms in a north-south Zone centered over the eastern half of
   Illinois.  Within this zone, modest CAPE but strong flow aloft will
   continue to support organized storms, and with dewpoints over the
   northern half of the watch in the low 50s, strong/damaging wind
   gusts appear to be the primary risk.

   Over southeastern portions of the watch -- i.e. east-central
   Illinois and into western Indiana -- slightly richer low-level
   moisture is evident, with mid 50s dewpoints prevalent.  Here too,
   more substantial low-level veering with height is evident (surface
   to 1 KM shear 35 kt at this time is indicated at IND).  These two
   factors suggest that greatest tornado risk within the WW may exist
   across this portion of the watch over the next 1 to 2 hours.

   With time, overall severe risk is forecast to shift gradually
   eastward in tandem with progression of the storms and associated
   cold front.  New WW -- or WW extensions -- will likely need to be
   considered into more of Indiana over the next couple of hours.

   ..Goss.. 03/19/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...

   LAT...LON   39378817 40248812 40818712 40668631 39798577 38998594
               38498729 38658853 39378817