Mesoscale Discussion 2444
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2026
Areas affected...parts of south central through northeastern
Alabama...adjacent eastern Tennessee and northwestern Georgia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 041933Z - 042130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Strengthening thunderstorm development possible through
4-6 PM EST, with stronger cells occasionally becoming capable of
producing small hail, and eventually downbursts with potential to
produce locally damaging surface gusts.
DISCUSSION...A broken, pre-cold frontal squall line has been
maintained and undergoing slow intensification, aided by low-level
convergence and forcing for ascent downstream of negatively tilted
mid-level troughing now spreading into/across the southern
Appalachians vicinity. Based on an 18Z observed sounding from BMX,
as well as Rapid Refresh forecast soundings, the environment ahead
of this activity includes a deep surface-based moist layer (with
surface dew points near 70F), which is becoming characterized by
CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg with continuing insolation beneath a
relatively warm, capping layer based near/above 700 mb. At the same
time, southerly low-level wind fields have been veering and
weakening with time, resulting in shrinking, more linear low-level
hodographs. However, deep-layer shear beneath 40-50+ kt
southwesterly mid-level flow remains strong and potentially
supportive of evolving supercell structures.
Over the next few hours, it appears that lift and at least some
further boundary-layer warming/destabilization will continue to
overcome lingering mid-level inhibition and support intensifying
thunderstorm development. Although thermodynamic profiles appear
generally warm with relatively high freezing and wet-bulb zero
levels, a few stronger cells may become capable of producing small
to perhaps (briefly) marginally severe hail and, eventually, a few
downbursts with potentially damaging surface gusts before weakening.
This may continue while spreading eastward into early evening,
before diminishing.
..Kerr/Hart.. 11/04/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...
LAT...LON 35628429 34428469 32188615 31538763 33158702 35948579
35628429
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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