Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2439

   Mesoscale Discussion 2439
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0920 PM CST Mon Nov 02 2026

   Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern Oklahoma into far North
   Texas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 701...702...703...

   Valid 030320Z - 030445Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 701, 702, 703 continues.

   SUMMARY...A strong low-level jet will continue to support the risk
   for QLCS circulations from the Red River vicinity into east-central
   Oklahoma.

   DISCUSSION...Several linear segments continue slowly eastward across
   Oklahoma into North Texas. The strongest convection exists near the
   Red River. While a local dry pocket of surface air exists ahead of
   the current activity, upper 60s F dewpoints continue to stream
   through the ArkLaTex into eastern Oklahoma. A strong low-level jet
   is evident in KINX VAD data (50-55 kt in the lowest km). A few
   showers have started to develop near the AR/OK border in association
   with the low-level warm advection. Given the strength of the
   low-level shear, QLCS circulations will remain possible into the
   overnight. Depending on how convection along the Red River evolves,
   local extensions in time/area of WW 702 may be needed if intensity
   is maintained.

   ..Wendt.. 11/03/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33719822 35659708 36029637 35979554 35689510 35199470
               34829477 33889578 33499655 33409751 33449809 33719822 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH