Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2437

   Mesoscale Discussion 2437
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0628 PM CST Mon Nov 02 2026

   Areas affected...Central Oklahoma

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 701...

   Valid 030028Z - 030200Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 701 continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for QLCS tornadoes is expected to increase in
   central Oklahoma and eastward as storms encounter increasing
   low-level shear. A downstream watch into eastern Oklahoma will
   eventually be needed.

   DISCUSSION...A band of linear storms continues east-northeast into
   central Oklahoma. The observed 00Z sounding from OUN showed weak
   mid-level lapse rates, a capping inversion around 800 mb, and
   weakness within the hodograph around the inversion level. These are
   likely reasons why convection has struggled to intensify/organize.
   With time, however, the low-level jet will continue to intensify
   within central and especially eastern Oklahoma. Furthermore, lift
   from approaching shortwave trough should improve the thermodynamic
   environment. The threat for QLCS tornadoes will increase as storms
   interact with greater low-level shear. Severe wind gusts will remain
   possible. Large hail will likely remain isolated given the poor
   mid-level lapse rates and linear storm mode. A watch will likely be
   needed for parts of eastern Oklahoma this evening.

   ..Wendt.. 11/03/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35219717 34949843 35019880 35239869 36269808 36659682
               36349640 35709640 35329682 35219717 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN