Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2434

   Mesoscale Discussion 2434
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0455 PM CST Mon Nov 02 2026

   Areas affected...Texas Rolling Plains into Edwards Plateau

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 022255Z - 030000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for all severe hazards will increase into the
   evening across the Rolling Plains and Edwards Plateau. A watch is
   likely late this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...As towering cumulus continue to deepen along a surface
   trough/Pacific cold front, the potential for severe storms is
   expected to increase across parts of the Rolling Plains and Edwards
   Plateau this evening. Surface heating has been stronger in these
   areas than farther north (MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg). While shear and
   mid-level ascent do decrease with southward extent, the concern is
   for this weaker forcing to favor more discrete elements. As such,
   the threat for severe winds and hail (perhaps to around 2 in. with
   the stronger supercells) will be present. The threat for tornadoes
   is somewhat less clear. The low-level jet will be focused more into
   OK/KS, but an axis of stronger 850 mb winds will extend
   southwestward into the Edwards Plateau. Should a mature supercell
   persist eastward into the evening, there would be an increasing risk
   for tornadoes given the enlarged low-level hodographs.

   ..Wendt/Gleason.. 11/02/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31990133 32910023 33169993 33379858 33159811 32619813
               31639899 31499959 31480065 31630102 31990133 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN