Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2433

   Mesoscale Discussion 2433
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0355 PM CST Mon Nov 02 2026

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Nebraska into southeastern
   South Dakota and northwestern Iowa

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 022155Z - 022330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A low probability risk for an isolated damaging wind gust
   and perhaps a brief tornado may accompany thunderstorms over the
   next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery depicts a broken, loosely
   organized band of convection extending from near Grand Island, NE,
   northeastward to Sioux Falls, SD. Latest objective analysis suggests
   that MLCAPE has increased to 500-1000 J/kg within this corridor.
   While effective shear remains weaker compared to areas farther south
   (around 25-30 kts), transient storm organization may occur with
   stronger updrafts. Given strong low-level flow (around 40 kts
   sampled at 1 km AGL by the OAX VWP) and 100+ J/kg 0-3 km CAPE
   overlapping ambient surface vertical vorticity, a low probability
   risk for an isolated damaging wind gust and/or brief tornado may
   exist over the next couple of hours. Watch issuance is not expected
   owing to the isolated/limited nature of this severe risk.

   ..Chalmers/Bentley.. 11/02/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...

   LAT...LON   40649866 42479736 43099696 43549677 43959660 44109628
               44029587 43679567 43169561 42299587 41409640 40759716
               40509790 40519842 40649866 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH