Mesoscale Discussion 2431
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CST Mon Nov 02 2026
Areas affected...portions of northwest...central...and north Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 021955Z - 022200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to initiate along a dryline
across northwest Texas this afternoon, with coverage gradually
increasing with time. Initial supercells will quickly transition
toward a mixed-mode of supercells and linear segments, with a threat
for all severe hazards.
DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery depicts developing
cumulus along/ahead of a surface dryline across portions of West
Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Downstream observations across
northwest Texas depict temperatures warming to near 80 F behind a
clearing stratus layer and amidst 100-mb mean mixing ratios of 14-15
g/kg, with this combination supporting 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE.
Continued heating through mid/late afternoon combined with
increasing large-scale ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level
shortwave trough currently noted over the eastern CO/NM border will
continue to foster additional destabilization through this evening.
As this shortwave transitions eastward, an attendant 60-70-kt
mid-level jet streak will begin to overlap northwest/north Texas,
with 40-50+ kts of effective shear supporting initial supercells
capable of primarily large hail. With time, increasing storm
coverage, particularly across northwest/north Texas, will favor a
transition to a mixed-mode of supercells/linear segments and an
associated increase in the threat for damaging/severe winds. A few
tornadoes also appear possible owing to a strengthening low-level
jet and increasingly clockwise-curved, low-level hodographs;
although, some uncertainty surrounding this threat exists as the
axis of strongest 850-mb flow will be displaced farther
northeastward. Regardless, watch issuance may be needed for at least
a portion of the Slight-risk area to cover these threats.
Farther south into central Texas, storm coverage is forecast to
increase later this evening as the low-level jet strengthens;
however, deep-layer flow/shear and related large-scale forcing
weaken with southward extent. This suggests that the severe risk is
likely to remain more isolated farther southward.
..Chalmers/Bentley.. 11/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...
LAT...LON 33349898 33359828 33359757 33359708 33219664 32969649
32569665 32119714 31259819 30519928 30130005 30070061
30320101 30850099 31540071 32350038 33109996 33339967
33359905 33349898
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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