Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2428

   Mesoscale Discussion 2428
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0301 AM CST Mon Nov 02 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of the Texas Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 020901Z - 021100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe threat is waning across the Texas Panhandle as
   thunderstorms become displaced behind a surface cold pool.
   Additional watch issuance will not be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Overall convective intensity has been waning over the
   past hour per MRMS echo tops and GOES IR imagery. Although
   occasional updraft pulses continue to be noted, convection
   along/within the primary band appears to be elevated and displaced
   behind the surface cold pool. Consequently, the potential for robust
   surface-based convection is quickly diminishing despite some
   lingering MUCAPE and strong deep-layer wind shear. 

   A few shallow convective towers are noted along the NM/TX state line
   to the west of Lubbock, TX. Recent guidance, notably the 06z HRRR,
   suggests that this activity could intensify as it moves east across
   a plume of 1000-1500 MUCAPE. However, given the anemic radar and
   satellite presentation of the convection so far, coupled with
   lingering inhibition downstream, it appears unlikely that this
   activity poses a substantial severe threat through the early morning
   hours.

   ..Moore.. 11/02/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   34390227 35020141 35790083 35920052 35890033 35660021
               35200030 34760055 34530081 34370105 34260132 34160159
               34150179 34150203 34190216 34390227 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN