Mesoscale Discussion 2427 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Mon Nov 02 2026 Areas affected...Far eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle Concerning...Tornado Watch 700... Valid 020652Z - 020845Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 700 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for severe gusts and brief tornadoes continues across portions of far eastern New Mexico, and will become focused across the Texas Panhandle through the early morning hours. Localized expansions/extensions of WW 700 may be needed. DISCUSSION...MRMS and GOES IR trends over the past hour have exhibited transient intensification of convective elements within a broken line of convection from far southwest KS into the TX Panhandle and far eastern NM. The limited durability of the stronger cells/line segments is most likely attributable to the residual warm layer noted on the 04 UTC AMA sounding, which is likely more prominent than depicted by recent mesoanalysis and model guidance. However, large-scale ascent continues to spread east over the warm sector, which will promote additional thunderstorm development over the next few hours. Given these considerations, periodic intensification of embedded cells and segments within the convective band will likely continue across the TX Panhandle through the early morning hours. Regional VWPs continue to sample strong (45-50 knot) wind shear within the warm sector, though low-level curvature appears to be weakening across the central TX Panhandle ahead of the line per the AMA VWP. This kinematic environment will continue to support organized convection, but the tornado risk may become dependent on achieving, and sustaining, meridionally-oriented line segments. This potential appears greatest along and south of the I-40 corridor over the next couple of hours as convection developing east of Clovis, NM spreads east/northeast into a somewhat wider and more buoyant warm sector (compared to locations further north). ..Moore.. 11/02/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ... LAT...LON 34070335 35100257 36060179 36250157 36390114 36300079 35990066 35560075 34930112 34210178 33940227 33840260 33820295 33840319 33880329 34070335 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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