Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2421

   Mesoscale Discussion 2421
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0356 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

   Areas affected...portions of southern Nevada into western/central
   Arizona

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 302056Z - 302300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated risk for marginally severe hail, strong to
   locally severe wind gusts, and perhaps a landspout may accompany the
   strongest storms this afternoon/evening. Watch issuance is not
   expected.

   DISCUSSION...Convective coverage has gradually increased through 21
   UTC ahead of an approaching mid-level shortwave trough evident over
   southern California in recent water vapor satellite imagery. While
   widespread cloud cover has been prevalent across the region through
   much of the day, filtered diurnal heating and dewpoints ranging from
   the mid-50s to low-60s F are supporting weak to moderate buoyancy of
   500-1000+ J/kg MLCAPE, which has been sufficient for the development
   of a few relatively small and transiently stronger convective cores
   through mid-afternoon.

   Stronger mid/upper flow along the eastern periphery of the
   aforementioned shortwave trough (~40 kts at 8-9 km MSL per the
   FSX/IWA VWPs) and modest mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km may
   support modestly greater organization of developing updrafts and
   isolated marginally severe hail through mid afternoon. Isolated
   strong to locally severe wind gusts may also occur, primarily where
   stronger heating has steepened low-level lapse rates. Lastly, some
   potential for a brief landspout may exist given pockets of stronger
   low-level buoyancy overlapping ambient surface vorticity,
   particularly in the NV/AZ border vicinity where latest objective
   analysis depicts NSTP values of 1-2. Given the overall expectations
   for any severe risk to remain limited in magnitude and spatially
   isolated, watch issuance is not expected.

   ..Chalmers/Smith.. 10/30/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

   LAT...LON   36351503 36391469 36241442 35911410 35341365 34831304
               34411222 34251163 34021101 33781065 33441059 33241070
               32971128 32991212 33141292 34121418 34941510 35591540
               36081529 36351503 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN