Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2418

   Mesoscale Discussion 2418
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0648 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

   Areas affected...portions of south Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 292348Z - 300045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A brief tornado or two remain possible over the next
   couple of hours with low-topped supercells.

   DISCUSSION...A few transient, low-topped supercells have exhibited
   some low-level rotation over the past hour or so, with one storm
   accompanied by a TDS and another with a funnel cloud/possible
   tornado sighting. These storms are progressing to the west-northwest
   within a broader low-level warm-air/moisture advection regime.
   Overall buoyancy and vertical wind shear are quite mediocre per
   latest mesoanalysis. However, EWX and DFX VAD profiles show
   low-level hodographs with appreciable curvature. Given that a
   south-southeasterly low-level jet will only increase in magnitude
   this evening, low-level shear should remain favorable for additional
   organized updrafts to become low-topped supercells, perhaps
   accompanied by a brief tornado threat before the boundary layer
   decouples later this evening. Nonetheless, any tornado threat that
   persists into the evening should be quite brief and/or localized.

   ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 10/29/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29310117 29830109 30020063 29799982 29319927 28829915
               28509929 28359955 28319983 28350006 28640051 28930068
               29310117 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH