Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2416

   Mesoscale Discussion 2416
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0604 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

   Areas affected...far southeastern Nebraska into southwestern Iowa

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 282304Z - 290100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated supercells may produce a few instances of large
   hail and damaging wind this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has been ongoing near the
   eastward advancing cold front across portions of western Iowa into
   far southeastern Nebraska. The 18z RAOB from OAX shows a  warm nose
   around 850 mb. More recent analysis from SPC Mesoanalysis continues
   to show MLCIN is present ahead of the front into portions of central
   Iowa. This mid-level warm layer/CIN and generally weak
   convergence/weak upper level forcing is likely what has made
   sustaining storms difficult.

   Nonetheless, a couple of cells have developed northeast of Omaha.
   The environment ahead of the front is characterized by moderate
   instability, steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and sufficient deep
   layer shear to support supercells. Should this cell or additional
   cells persist, they may pose some isolated potential for large hail
   and damaging wind. Overall, this threat appears to remain fairly
   isolated given the weaker forcing/MLCIN.

   ..Halbert-E/Guyer.. 10/28/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...

   LAT...LON   40939648 42029553 42619467 42649379 42379351 41919348
               40799454 40099585 40459670 40459670 40939648 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN