Mesoscale Discussion 2412 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026 Areas affected...parts of southeastern New Mexico and southwestern Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 271917Z - 272145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development appears possible by 3-4 PM MDT into early evening near the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains vicinity. These may pose a risk for large hail and localized strong surface gusts. DISCUSSION...Destabilization is ongoing in response to continuing insolation along the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, where surface dew points are in the upper 50s to near 60 F, beneath modestly cool cyclonic mid-level flow. Orographic forcing, aided by lift associated with weak low-level warm advection, is already supporting the initiation of isolated thunderstorm development. This is likely to continue into early evening. Beneath 30-40+ kt west-southwesterly around 7-8 km AGL and higher, deep-layer shear near the higher terrain is strong, with elongated hodographs. This may support the occasional evolution of isolated supercell structures with potential to produce large hail, in the presence of thermodynamic profiles with steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates supporting CAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg. It remains unclear how far east of the higher terrain activity will develop. Influenced by generally weak lower to mid-tropospheric wind fields, veering with height, storm motions may remain modest to slow, with a tendency to propagate east/southeastward. ..Kerr/Smith.. 10/27/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 33500486 32090376 30720300 30630396 32690526 33500486 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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