Mesoscale Discussion 2411
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0820 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Areas affected...east/southeast New Mexico and parts of Far West
Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 260120Z - 260415Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered storms should persist for several hours, with a
few producing hail over 1.00" diameter. A brief/weak tornado may
occur as well.
DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a stationary front from the
northern TX Panhandle into east-central NM. South of this boundary,
temperatures are in the low to mid 60s F, while dewpoints remain in
the 55-60 F range, resulting in a high RH/low LCL environment.
While the upper trough lifts out of the area tonight, low-level
southeasterlies will persist, with 30-35 kt out of the southeast
just above the surface. This may support 0-1 km SRH values over 100
m2/s2.
Effective shear remains at or above 35-40 kt this evening, while
MLCAPE is generally in the 500 to 1200 J/kg range. The 00Z AMA
sounding shows a cool/moist profile, but still unstable, with
veering winds with height near the boundary. Farther south toward El
Paso TX, a warmer and drier profile exists, with weaker shear but
MLCAPE over 1200 J/kg.
Recent radar trends suggest additional cells may develop into Far
West TX over the next few hours, while ongoing cells over NM roam
the Eastern Plains. There may be a favorable zone south of the main
boundary where shear can support small supercells with a brief
tornado risk. However, cool boundary layer temperatures may mitigate
that threat somewhat. Otherwise, cells with hail appear most
probable over southeast NM into TX where instability is greater.
..Jewell.. 10/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
LAT...LON 31170548 31260584 31480622 31670632 32030625 32370616
32750614 33730611 34180601 34450581 34550559 35230370
35370322 35340303 35090286 34500280 34120342 33530371
32090388 31600403 31170548
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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