Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2408

   Mesoscale Discussion 2408
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0618 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

   Areas affected...Far West Texas into southeast New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 697...

   Valid 242318Z - 250115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 697
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Hail over 1.00" diameter as well as severe wind gusts of
   60-70 mph remain possible into the evening as storms move across Far
   West Texas and toward southeast New Mexico.

   DISCUSSION...Beneath moderate southerly winds aloft, storms have
   developed near a surface trough south of the US border, and have
   quickly progressed north/northeast across the El Paso area. Cell
   motions are mainly toward the north/northeast, around 205 deg at 25
   kt on average.

   MLCAPE is over 1000 J/kg with 30-40 kt effective shear, which is
   supporting the long-lived cells. A few cells have shown more
   rightward motion, such as the storm north of Fort Hancock TX, and
   increasing  southeasterly boundary-layer winds may aid storm
   longevity for a few hours into the evening.

   Low-level shear is generally low, but up to 100 m2/s2 0-1 SRH exists
   for a right-moving cell. As such, any mesocyclonic enhancement would
   likely occur with such motions (closer to 220-240 deg).

   ..Jewell.. 10/24/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   31880666 32690660 33100643 33320630 33850589 34070549
               34110506 34050442 33970438 33680410 32230419 31170457
               30660514 31360607 31880666 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN