Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2406

   Mesoscale Discussion 2406
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0534 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

   Areas affected...south-central New Mexico and far west Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 696...

   Valid 232234Z - 240030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 696
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for large hail, severe wind, and perhaps a brief
   tornado continues within WW696.

   DISCUSSION...Supercells continue across southern New Mexico this
   afternoon, with several splits and supercell mergers ongoing. VAD
   profiles from ABX and EPZ depict linear and elongated hodographs,
   supporting continued splitting supercells. Winds aloft veer to
   southwesterly just off the surface. Surface observations near the
   Rio Grande Valley are more southeasterly. If the
   supercells/supercell clusters west of El Paso can deviate more
   strongly eastward, a slight increase in low-level SRH and potential
   for a tornado where dew points are near 50 F. Moisture becomes more
   limited with eastern and northern extent where dew points are more
   around the mid 40s F. Overall, the main threats will likely remain
   large hail and severe wind.

   ..Thornton.. 10/23/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   32660817 33340829 33580814 33770771 33840741 33860699
               33830664 33770638 33610614 33270585 32740576 32210572
               31670578 31490582 31410589 31260682 31280722 31310767
               31360808 32660817 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN