Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2405

   Mesoscale Discussion 2405
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0532 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

   Areas affected...much of northern New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 696...

   Valid 232232Z - 240100Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 696
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Scattered cells should continue to produce hail over 1.00"
   diameter through this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Two north-south zones of cells persist, forming over
   the higher terrain both west and east of the Rio Grande Valley.
   Backed winds aloft along with low-level southerlies are resulting in
   straight hodographs with northeastward motions averaging 215/22 kt. 

   Boundary-layer dewpoints remain mixed into the 40s F with some low
   50s into southern/eastern NM. MLCAPE is near 1000 J/kg, with
   seasonably cool temperatures aloft. Cellular storm mode should
   continue to favor hail as the primary risk, with hail at or above
   1.00" likely.

   Some CAMs suggest aggregating outflow later this evening, which
   could potentially result in strong wind gusts. By that time,
   instability will have weakened, and severe gust potential would
   appear to be minimal.

   ..Jewell.. 10/23/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36620353 34140414 34020452 33910712 34160751 34810732
               35550726 36450725 36800684 37070495 37000395 36620353 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN