Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2401

   Mesoscale Discussion 2401
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0316 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

   Areas affected...Western/central New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 222016Z - 222115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated hail/wind threat may extend a couple of counties
   to the east and may warrant a narrow Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

   DISCUSSION...Convection with embedded/organized structures continues
   to spread northeastward across western NM.  Forcing for ascent and
   vertical shear weaken gradually with eastward extent, though the 18z
   ABQ sounding revealed an environment favorable for some continued
   hail/wind threat east of the current Tornado Watch.  An eastward
   extension of the current Tornado Watch is in question given the
   marginal tornado threat this far east, so a new/narrow Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch will likely be proposed shortly.

   ..Thompson/Guyer.. 10/22/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   32310736 32060810 32540802 34880746 35980700 36390652
               36390602 35880583 34490641 32310736 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN