Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2400

   Mesoscale Discussion 2400
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0314 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Utah and southwestern
   Colorado

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 222014Z - 222145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe risk is expected to spread northward, with the
   main concerns being severe wind gusts and large hail. A watch will
   likely be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Clouds have gradually cleared from south to north into
   parts of southeastern UT and southwestern CO, yielding
   boundary-layer destabilization. Despite relatively weak buoyancy,
   strengthening large-scale forcing for ascent preceding the midlevel
   low/trough over CA and strengthening deep-layer wind fields (around
   60 kt of 0-6 km shear per GJX VWP) should still support organized
   clusters and supercell structures developing/spreading into the area
   from the south. The primary concerns will be large hail and severe
   wind gusts, though a tornado cannot be entirely ruled out -- given
   modest low-level shear/hodograph curvature. A watch will likely be
   needed.

   ..Weinman/Guyer.. 10/22/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GJT...

   LAT...LON   37090800 37060962 37390995 37750991 38140952 38250903
               38230827 38090802 37860780 37450775 37090800 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN