Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2397

   Mesoscale Discussion 2397
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1107 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

   Areas affected...Eastern Arizona and western New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 691...692...

   Valid 221607Z - 221730Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 691, 692
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for a mix of supercells and storm clusters will
   spread eastward from Arizona into New Mexico by this afternoon.  A
   new watch will likely be needed downstream into New Mexico, with the
   potential for local watch extensions farther west into central AZ.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms, a few with supercell
   structures, continue across central and eastern AZ, with the
   stronger storms focused near the edge of the higher terrain. 
   Convection will likely persist into the afternoon as forcing for
   ascent develops eastward/northeastward in advance of a midlevel
   trough over southern CA that will begin to eject east-northeastward.
    Cloud breaks will contribute to destabilization farther northeast
   with time across AZ/NM, in an environment with long hodographs
   favoring splitting supercells and clusters.  The stronger low-level
   shear/hodograph curvature and somewhat richer low-level moisture are
   focused near the Mogollon Rim in central AZ with some eastward
   expansion expected into this afternoon, where a couple of tornadoes
   will be possible.  Otherwise, large hail and damaging gusts will be
   the main concerns through the afternoon.  A new watch is likely into
   western NM by 17z, and some combination of local watch extensions
   and the new watch will be needed as far west as central AZ.

   ..Thompson/Guyer.. 10/22/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...GJT...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

   LAT...LON   32260968 32611072 33551156 34211180 34971187 36311173
               36961097 37000868 37000764 36670738 35980741 34270767
               32990817 32320861 32260968 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN