Mesoscale Discussion 2396 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026 Areas affected...portions of central/eastern Arizona...near and south of the Mogollon Rim Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 691...692... Valid 221240Z - 221445Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 691, 692 continues. SUMMARY...A period of intensifying thunderstorm development, including a couple of evolving supercells with potential to produce large hail, locally damaging wind gusts and at least some risk for a tornado, still appears possible through 7-9 AM MST. DISCUSSION...Strongest recent thunderstorm development has been focused near and just south of the Mogollon Rim, east of Phoenix northward into the Show Low vicinity. However, objective analysis indicates that a corridor of better boundary-layer instability lingers to the west, south/southwest of Flagstaff into the Greater Phoenix area, where surface dew points have increased a bit into the upper 60s F, as a prominent upstream mid-level trough axis slowly pivots toward the region. Associated forcing for ascent, coupled with at least some boost to potential instability (including near-surface buoyancy) associated with the gradual onset of diurnal heating, could still support a period of intensifying thunderstorm development through 14-16Z. In the presence of strong continuing deep-layer shear, this may including evolving supercells posing a risk for large hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a risk for a tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 10/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... LAT...LON 33751216 34431241 35161175 34451035 33950969 32901065 33141202 33751216 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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