Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2391

   Mesoscale Discussion 2391
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0736 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

   Areas affected...far southern California Coast

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 220036Z - 220230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Convection approaching the coast may pose a brief threat
   of a weak tornado and damaging wind gust over the next few hours.  A
   watch is unlikely given the marginal and isolated nature of the
   threat.

   DISCUSSION...Convection has deepened and strengthened along a
   convergence band off the far southern California coast and will move
   onshore in the next couple of hours.  While the convection currently
   lacks lightning, there has been a history of rotation offshore. 
   Despite the shallow and meager instability, there is sufficient
   deep-layer and low-level shear to support storm organization and
   rotation.  As such, the potential for a weak tornado and a strong
   wind gust will exist as this band moves onshore.

   ..Jirak/Smith.. 10/22/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGX...

   LAT...LON   32571748 33011761 33411804 33691796 33871794 33861768
               33581732 33301706 32961692 32751694 32581701 32571748 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH