Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2389

   Mesoscale Discussion 2389
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0441 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

   Areas affected...northwestern New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 212141Z - 220015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
   through the afternoon across northwestern New Mexico.  The strongest
   storms will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds,
   but the severe coverage is expected to be too isolated to warrant a
   watch.

   DISCUSSION...Surface heating throughout the day has resulted in
   modest destabilization across western New Mexico.  As a result,
   thunderstorms have developed over the area and will continue to
   increase in coverage and intensity over the next few hours as they
   move to the northeast.  While low-level moisture (low 50s surface
   dewpoints) is limiting instability and updraft strength, deep-layer
   shear is sufficient to support organized updrafts, including
   supercell structures.  The strongest and longest-lived updrafts will
   be capable of producing large hail and strong wind gusts, but the
   overall threat is expected to remain too isolated for a watch.

   ..Jirak/Smith.. 10/21/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...

   LAT...LON   34690912 35730915 36340893 36700828 36940766 36960674
               36020647 35480652 34850688 34340725 34000816 34120867
               34690912 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN