Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2388

   Mesoscale Discussion 2388
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0254 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of central/northern Arizona

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 688...

   Valid 211954Z - 212130Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 688 continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe risk continues across Tornado Watch #688, with
   a potential focus over parts of Yavapai and Coconino Counties for
   the next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from KFSX continues to depict
   periodic supercells tracking north-northeastward across parts of
   Yavapai into southern Coconino Counties, where forcing for ascent is
   maximized with a south-southwesterly low-level jet and related
   warm-air advection. Similar to earlier this morning, most of these
   storms locally intensify as they interact with terrain features,
   where low-level vorticity and mesoscale ascent remain maximized.
   Given pockets of diurnal heating in cloud breaks and around 150-200
   m2/s2 0-1 km SRH (per observed storm motions and KFSX VWP), this
   area should remain locally favorable for supercells capable of
   producing large hail, locally severe gusts, and a couple of
   tornadoes in the near term.

   ..Weinman.. 10/21/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGZ...

   LAT...LON   34541281 34801319 35081327 35461310 35751269 35991214
               36001187 35901163 35541143 34641139 34311168 34351212
               34541281 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN