Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2385

   Mesoscale Discussion 2385
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0849 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

   Areas affected...West central and central Arizona

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 211349Z - 211515Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated large hail/wind damage and a tornado or two will
   be possible with occasional supercells through the morning.  There
   is some uncertainty in the timing of any ramp up in storm coverage,
   which is the primary uncertainty for watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Earlier supercells have weakened as the convection
   moved across the Mogollon Rim and into a slightly cooler/more stable
   environment atop the higher terrain.  Additional/isolated
   thunderstorms are forming northeast through northwest of Phoenix
   within a low-midlevel moisture plume, potentially aided by embedded
   speed maxima moving north-northeastward.  Though the coverage of
   additional storms through the morning is in question, a
   conditionally favorable environment for supercells will persist with
   sufficient buoyancy (per modified RAP forecast soundings) and
   hodograph length/curvature based on the observed VWPs from KIWA and
   KFSX.  This area will continue to be monitored through the day, with
   the potential for isolated large hail, strong gusts and possibly a
   tornado or two as storms interact with the Rim and the zone of
   somewhat greater buoyancy/vertical shear.  Though timing is
   uncertain, a ramp up in storm coverage could justify watch issuance
   at some point later this morning.

   ..Thompson/Mosier.. 10/21/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

   LAT...LON   33141259 33291355 34091384 34881348 35371310 35531244
               35331165 34811111 33941121 33411181 33141259 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN