Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2384

   Mesoscale Discussion 2384
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0305 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

   Areas affected...parts of central and northern Arizona

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 210805Z - 211000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorm development posing a risk
   for small to marginally severe hail may persist another hour or two,
   north of the Greater Phoenix area into the Mogollon Rim vicinity
   south of Flagstaff, with diminishing potential through 2-4 AM MST
   and into/across northern Arizona.

   DISCUSSION...There has been an increase in number of thunderstorms
   initiating over the past couple of hours, as a focused area of
   large-scale ascent begins to spread north of the lower deserts into
   the Colorado Plateau.  At higher elevations across and north of the
   Mogollon Rim, the boundary-layer moisture increases remain modest,
   within a relatively cool environment.  This is likely to continue to
   suppress destabilization, particularly as temperatures around 500 mb
   begin to warm through 10-12z.  In the  presence of strong deep-layer
   shear, the environment north of Greater Phoenix into the Mogollon
   Rim vicinity may continue to support a few storms capable of
   producing small to marginally severe hail for another hour or two,
   however this potential is expected to remain more limited with
   northward extent.

   ..Kerr/Gleason.. 10/21/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...

   LAT...LON   34241266 36281224 36541009 34970998 33751177 34241266 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN