Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2380

   Mesoscale Discussion 2380
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0608 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

   Areas affected...far southeastern Illinois into southern Indiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 152308Z - 160015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...The potential for damaging gusts and a tornado or two
   should be maximized over the next couple of hours across far
   southeast IL into southern IN.

   DISCUSSION...KVWX/KIND radars show a broken line of strong/severe
   storms near the IL/IN border. Located near the intersection of a
   low-level surface trough and warm front, convection has gradually
   intensified over the last hour. Low-level rotation and supercell
   structures have been observed, though the overall convective mode is
   a mixture of cells and linear clusters. The environment downstream
   remains supportive of strong/severe storms this evening with
   damaging gusts the most likely hazard.

   Low-level rotation has increased over the last 15 min with several
   embedded mesocyclones. The KVWX VAD shows substantial veering in the
   lowest 1-2km with 0-500m SRH above 250 m2/s2 near the front. This
   and an STP of 1-2 will support the potential for a tornado or two
   with any stronger supercell structures or QLCS segments as they
   approach the frontal zone.

   The loss of diurnal heating and storm motions will eventually move
   convection into more stable air this evening. This suggests the
   greatest severe threat is likely over the next couple of hours.

   ..Lyons/Smith.. 10/15/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

   LAT...LON   38528822 39168760 39328663 39298605 39158560 38938540
               38628557 38428618 38298735 38288785 38188807 38528822 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH