Mesoscale Discussion 2378
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
Areas affected...portions of the greater northwest Texas region
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 151913Z - 152145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop in an
increasingly unstable airmass this afternoon. Although vertical
shear will support some thunderstorm organization, weak lapse rates
and thunderstorms quickly moving into a cooler airmass to the north
will limit the potential for an organized wind threat. A watch is
currently not expected.
DISCUSSION...A messy surface pattern is found across the southern
Plains, with a congealed outflow/stationary front stretching across
northwest Texas into southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas. A
slowly moving synoptic front is located to the west and north of the
stationary front. In between widespread light to moderate
precipitation is falling across far northwest Texas and much of
western/central Oklahoma.
Along and south of the stationary front, temperatures have warmed
into the mid to upper-80Fs in the presence of widespread dewpoints
in the mid-60Fs to lower-70Fs. The result is MUCAPE values in excess
of 3000 J/kg ahead of the cold front across west Texas and south of
the stationary front. Here scattered thunderstorms are developing
along the surface cold front and also along the remnant stationary
front as convective temperatures are reached.
Vertical profiles across the area show deep-layer shear on the order
of 30-40 knots, oriented from southwest to northeast. They also show
moist-adiabatic profiles, with weak mid-level lapse rates. Thus,
while thunderstorm organization is possible, including transient
mid-level thunderstorm rotation, the large hail threat should be
muted.
The deep-layer shear vector is also oriented in such a manner that
will favor updrafts developing in the warm sector to move across the
stationary front and into the cooler surface airmass. Thus, while
warm-sector low-level lapse rates on the order of 7-8 C/km exist,
thunderstorms will likely spend little time realizing them before
moving into an airmass with low-level lapse rates closer to 4-5
C/km. This should limit the potential for organized widespread wind
threat, and limit the potential to isolated wet downbursts.
Should a thunderstorm develop a sufficiently strong cold pool that
can stay ahead of the synoptic front and outflow boundary, a small
window for damaging winds will exist this afternoon/evening. This
scenario is far from certain, but will be monitored.
..Marsh/Guyer.. 10/15/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 31590130 31770140 32110127 32410109 32840109 32990111
33250092 33520033 33659951 33659891 33669834 33639788
33439768 32959771 32519787 32159814 31739903 31569952
31530025 31590130
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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