Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2377

   Mesoscale Discussion 2377
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0835 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

   Areas affected...portions of the Red River Valley in southwestern
   Oklahoma/northwestern Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 685...

   Valid 150135Z - 150230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 685
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A locally greater risk for damaging/severe wind gusts and
   perhaps a brief tornado may exist over the next 1-2 hours along
   portions of the Red River Valley.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery depicts a well-defined QLCS with
   a prominent bowing segment and embedded mesovortex (as sampled by
   the KFDR radar) advancing northeastward along the Red River Valley
   across portions of southwestern Oklahoma/northwestern Texas. This
   bow is propagating eastward within a more stable low-level air mass
   located to the north of a remnant outflow boundary. Latest
   observations continue to depict backed surface flow within this air
   mass, however, with recent objective analysis also indicated the
   presence of clockwise curved low-level hodographs and 200-300 m2/s2
   ESRH. This is likely to continue to support at least some risk for
   damaging/severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief QLCS tornado along
   portions of the Red River Valley in the near-term, with the greatest
   risk likely to exist poleward of the bow's apex.

   ..Chalmers.. 10/15/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34699870 34819833 34839792 34699756 34469741 34189746
               33979764 33829793 33709829 33709872 33739887 33879891
               34079891 34269903 34369919 34579888 34699870 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH