Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2376

   Mesoscale Discussion 2376
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0601 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

   Areas affected...portions of West and Northwest Texas into
   southwestern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 685...

   Valid 142301Z - 150030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 685
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for primarily damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
   brief tornado or two continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 685.

   DISCUSSION...Initially more cellular convection that formed along a
   north-south oriented Pacific cold front has largely trended toward a
   linear storm mode as of 2300 UTC, with two stronger clusters noted
   across West Texas. Several wind gusts measured/estimated in the
   60-75 mph range have been noted with this activity over the past
   couple of hours. Expectation is for these clusters to continue to
   progress northeastward, which will gradually result in storms
   becoming elevated as they progress into greater low-level stability
   noted north of an east-west oriented remnant outflow boundary and
   becoming elevated. The primary threat with this activity will
   continue to be damaging/severe wind gusts.

   Backed surface winds are also noted across northwest Texas/southwest
   Oklahoma to the north of the outflow boundary and are contributing
   to clockwise-curved low-level hodographs that may support the
   potential for a brief tornado or two if storms can remain surface
   based. Recent CAM guidance (e.g., HRRR/RRFS runs) continues to
   suggest that the outflow boundary will eventually lift northward
   tonight, with greater low-level moisture returning to the Red River
   Valley vicinity and perhaps as far north as southern/central
   Oklahoma. Some increase in the threat for a brief tornado may
   manifest should this scenario occur. This remains uncertain,
   however, as this boundary has exhibited minimal northward motion
   over the past several hours.

   ..Chalmers.. 10/14/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32510148 32810152 33280131 33780096 34470013 35039918
               35079886 34939853 34629837 34209852 33419915 32410023
               32140103 32260131 32510148 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN