Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2375

   Mesoscale Discussion 2375
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0258 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

   Areas affected...parts of the Permian Basin to South Plains

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 141958Z - 142200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms will likely persist into the early evening,
   spreading northeastward and producing areas of severe gusts and
   hail.

   DISCUSSION...A north-south line of storms has erupted southwest of
   the Midland TX area, in a zone of strong heating and substantial
   low-level moisture. These storms will likely persist for several
   hours as they travel northeastward across the destabilizing air
   mass. Further convection is noted northward toward Lubbock, and also
   extending east from there along the old outflow boundary. 

   Both cells and bowing structures are expected with deep-layer
   effective shear over 40 kt. Low-level shear is not particularly
   strong, but does increase with northward extent. The LBB VWP shows
   0-1 SRH around 75 m2/s2. Initial vigorous updrafts may support a
   brief/weak tornado, with most of the severe mode being wind and
   hail.

   ..Jewell/Guyer.. 10/14/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31020285 31720280 32370256 33190201 33840119 34090062
               34329997 34319948 34109918 33859913 33069978 31450086
               30840148 30600192 30630255 31020285 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN