Mesoscale Discussion 2373
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Areas affected...northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 141832Z - 142130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Storms will increase in coverage and intensity over
northwest Texas and develop into southwest Oklahoma through this
afternoon. Scattered strong to damaging gusts or marginal hail will
be possible.
DISCUSSION...An outflow-reinforced boundary is currently settling
south into northwest TX, with some indications of stalling. The air
mass north of this boundary is relatively cool, though areas of
strong heating should eventually aid in destabilization later today.
In the near term, visible imagery shows a prominent CU field in the
vicinity of the boundary, with a stronger cell already affecting
King County TX. Other smaller cells are also developing eastward
near the boundary.
The southwest flow regime ahead of the incoming shortwave trough,
along with increasing low-level southerly winds should aid in air
mass recovery toward the Red River Valley this afternoon, and
farther northeast later this evening as a low-level jet develops.
MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg over TX, along with effective shear of 50-60 kt
will favor cellular storm mode, and marginal hail may occur. Given
the boundary orientation, any tornado risk should be brief as cells
cross to the north.
With such high precipitable water content, substantial outflow is
expected, and a corridor of severe wind gusts may develop should
storms trend toward bowing structures.
..Jewell/Guyer.. 10/14/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...
LAT...LON 34399789 33879831 33229938 33010016 32980073 33310084
33960054 34949940 35079871 34859809 34399789
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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