Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2369

   Mesoscale Discussion 2369
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0559 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

   Areas affected...parts of the Texas South Plains into northwestern
   Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 683...

   Valid 132259Z - 140100Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 683
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Stronger storms may continue to pose a risk for severe
   hail another couple of hours, before strong to severe wind gusts
   become the more prominent potential severe hazard through the 7-9 PM
   CDT time frame.

   DISCUSSION...Low-level warm advection and convergence along the
   diffuse dryline are rather weak, and much of the region remains on
   the northwestern periphery of a prominent mid-level ridge.  However,
   forcing for ascent associated with one or two subtle perturbations
   within a belt of moderate (40+ kt near/above 500 mb) southwesterly
   mid/upper flow developing northeastward around the ridging may be
   contributing to the ongoing increase in thunderstorm development.

   This is occurring within seasonably high boundary-layer moisture
   content beneath modestly steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates
   supportive of sizable CAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg.  However,
   thermodynamic profiles are rather warm with relatively high freezing
   and potential wet-bulb zero levels.  Not much change is expected
   into early evening, but the risk for severe hail may continue at
   least a few more hours.  Gradually, modest strengthening of
   southerly low-level flow and lift above consolidating cold pools may
   contribute to increasing upscale growth through 00-02Z.  As this
   occurs, the risk for large hail probably will diminish, but
   organizing structures within evolving lines or clusters may pose
   increasing potential for strong to severe surface gusts.

   ..Kerr.. 10/13/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...

   LAT...LON   36620031 36929933 36629845 35149922 33150084 32910160
               33210186 34260174 35350105 36620031 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN