Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2367

   Mesoscale Discussion 2367
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0308 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

   Areas affected...Central New York

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 132008Z - 132215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is possible this
   afternoon.  A few storms may produce gusty/damaging winds.  A watch
   is not currently anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows a differential
   heating/baroclinic zone extending from near Oswego to near Albany
   NY.  Persistent clouds have limited temperatures north of this zone
   to the lower 60s and a stable boundary-layer.  To the south,
   temperatures have warmed into the mid 70s, yielding SBCAPE values
   around 1000 J/kg.  Agitated cumulus are developing near the lake
   shore and are expected track down the boundary and grow into showers
   and thunderstorms during the next couple of hours.  Winds aloft are
   quite strong with 50+ knots at 500mb and considerable veering
   profiles near the surface.  While a few strong storms are expected,
   warm temperatures around 700mb and the onset of diurnal cooling
   should limit the overall risk of severe storms through the early
   evening.

   ..Hart/Smith.. 10/13/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   43807612 43067446 42547435 42267491 42757675 43047739
               43367739 43617677 43807612 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH