Mesoscale Discussion 2366
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
Areas affected...portions of far northwestern Oklahoma into southern
and eastern Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 132007Z - 132200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind and hail will increase as
storms continue to become more numerous through the afternoon. A
risk for 75+ mph gusts and 2+ inch diameter hail will develop, and a
tornado or two also cannot be ruled out. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch
will likely be needed in the next hour or two to address the
impending severe threat.
DISCUSSION...A surface cold front continues to sag southward across
the central and southern Plains, with anafrontal convection noted
across portions of central KS. Though anafrontal, KDDC radar data
shows an increasingly eastward progression of the ongoing storms,
which may ultimately lead to storms outpacing the cold front. Once
this occurs, these storms will encounter a well-mixed boundary
layer, where surface observations show 90 F surface temperatures
amid 70+ F dewpoints, yielding over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE (per 19Z
mesoanalysis). Furthermore, around 50 kts of effective bulk (speed)
shear coincides with this buoyancy, suggesting multicells and
supercells are likely. 12 and 18Z regional observed soundings
depicted 7.5 C/km lapse rates, suggesting that any updrafts
preceding the cold front could become strong and well organized.
Severe wind and hail are the main concerns, with some gusts
potentially exceeding 75 mph, along with 2+ inch diameter hail.
Furthermore, any updrafts that can sustain supercellular
characteristics ahead of the surface cold front, and become dominant
(e.g. relatively unperturbed inflow) may produce a tornado, though
confidence in this scenario is low. Given the expected coverage of
severe storms ahead of the cold front in the next few hours, a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is likely.
..Squitieri/Smith.. 10/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 37789896 38479806 38979697 39239583 39289522 39199482
38699491 38059547 37419681 36929771 36629849 36669903
36869916 37309915 37789896
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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