Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2351

   Mesoscale Discussion 2351
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0940 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

   Areas affected...North Florida

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 678...

   Valid 100240Z - 100415Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 678 continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated tornado threat will persist through the early
   overnight hours in north Florida, well east of the weakening inner
   core of Isaias.

   DISCUSSION...Hurricane Isaias is weakening and will continue
   northward into southeast AL the next few hours.  The hurricane is
   taking on more of a hybrid structure with time as a result of strong
   vertical shear and a notable intrusion of lower theta-e air west and
   south of the circulation center.  Farther east, a surface warm front
   has been slow to advance inland across north FL and the FL
   Panhandle.  Occasional cellular convection and a few thunderstorms
   persist in a confluence band from west of Tampa into north FL, and
   shallower convection is ongoing along the primary wind shift
   approaching the FL Big Bend.  The lack of inland penetration of the
   more unstable warm sector has limited tornado threat this evening,
   with substantial improvements to low-level thermodynamic profiles
   unlikely tonight.  There is still a small window of opportunity for
   supercells/tornadoes with convection spreading inland near the
   southeast corner of the watch, and a marginal supercell/brief
   tornado threat a bit east of the watch into northeast FL.  However,
   the overall coverage and intensity of convection is expected to
   weaken slowly through the overnight hours.

   ..Thompson.. 10/10/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30598132 30158159 29918176 29678226 29158287 29238324
               29988397 30138426 30388413 30408372 30128290 30328223
               30858150 30598132 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH