Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 235

   Mesoscale Discussion 0235
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0326 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

   Areas affected...eastern Pennsylvania...central Maryland...and
   northern Virginia

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 54...

   Valid 162026Z - 162200Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 54 continues.

   SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging wind gusts are possible through the
   remainder of the afternoon. No watch is expected downstream of watch
   54.

   DISCUSSION...Skies have cleared across northern Virginia into
   southern Pennsylvania over the past few hours which has allowed
   temperatures to increase into the 70s ahead of the line of storms.
   Despite the warming temperatures, instability has had little change
   as the warming has also started to mix out surface dewpoints with
   some sites across northern Virginia now falling into the mid 50s.
   MLCAPE around 250 J/kg should persist ahead of this line of storms
   for the next 1 to 2 hours which may allow for some sporadic damaging
   wind gusts from the more organized cells. In fact, a few weak
   supercell type structures have developed which will locally increase
   the damaging wind/brief tornado threat. Storm motions should keep
   these storms within watch 54 for the awhile longer. Therefore, by
   the time storms move east of the watch, stabilizing effects of
   early-evening transition should limit the surface-based instability.
   Therefore, no watch is anticipated downstream of watch 54 at this
   time.

   ..Bentley/Gleason.. 03/16/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

   LAT...LON   38267957 39177900 40497778 41277705 41567682 41577623
               41247533 39927597 38567676 37657788 37607878 37717947
               38267957