Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2343

   Mesoscale Discussion 2343
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1121 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

   Areas affected...North Texas...Southern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 010421Z - 010615Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms over north-central TX will
   track north-northeastward into southern OK.  Increasing shear
   profiles could lead to a brief tornado or two.  The overall threat
   appears limited, and a watch is not currently expected.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms is currently affecting
   Wise/Montague counties of north-central TX.  The VAD profile at FWS
   has shown recent acceleration of low-level winds, with 1km AGL winds
   over 40 knots and 0-1km SRH over 300 m2/s2.  Recent radar trends
   have shown a few weak low/mid-level circulations in the cluster of
   storms, evidence of the enhanced shear profiles.  Given the influx
   of moist and marginally unstable air (dewpoints in the low 70s and
   MLCAPE ~800 J/kg), there is some potential for a brief tornado or
   two or locally damaging winds in this cluster for the next couple of
   hours.  Given relatively low confidence and the small area of
   concern, a watch is not currently anticipated.

   ..Hart.. 10/01/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33489792 34169735 35029680 35029627 34709608 33799668
               33459727 33229786 33349801 33489792 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH