Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2342

   Mesoscale Discussion 2342
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0802 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

   Areas affected...northwest Texas into western Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 010102Z - 010400Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are likely to increase in coverage, and a few
   strong to locally severe gusts cannot be ruled out.

   DISCUSSION...A cold front is currently moving into the eastern TX
   Panhandle and South Plains, with increasing storm development both
   along and ahead of it. The air mass is marginally unstable, with
   MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg and high precipitable water over 2.00". 

   Deep-layer wind fields are mostly parallel to the front and out of
   the southwest, which is not favorable for supercells. However, this
   could favor northeastward-moving storms/clusters with gusty winds.
   Hobart OK recently measured a gust of 40 mph, and other stations
   east of Lubbock indicating 45-50 mph.

   Low-level shear remains marginally favorable for rotation, with 0-1
   SRH of 100-150 m2/s2 over OK and northern TX. Storms trends will
   continue to be monitored for any uptick in severe potential this
   evening, but a watch is not currently anticipated.

   ..Jewell/Hart.. 10/01/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32810109 34150068 34660040 35489998 35779973 35979927
               35999885 35889844 35679811 35319795 35099792 34719805
               34089845 33629895 33479930 33120029 32830092 32810109 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH